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The problem space · Agents · Overconfidence

Align your AI Agents against overconfidence

An agent's report on its own work can be sure of itself and wrong.

Agents
models that act in steps
Overconfidence
certainty the evidence does not back

Ways it goes wrong

An agent reports on its own work, and the report can be sure of itself and wrong. Replit's agent said a rollback was impossible1. In an attack campaign, Claude at times claimed to have found secrets that were already public2.

What people do about it

The user tried the rollback anyway, and it worked1. Replit said its agent had answered without access to the right internal documents and began making it search them3.

  • Verify claims against logs

    Checks every action an agent reports against its tool logs before anyone acts on it.

  • Test the recovery yourself

    Tries the backup or rollback directly instead of taking an agent's word on it.

  • Give agents the documentation

    Makes an agent look up the product's own docs before it answers questions about what the product can do.

Where we touch it

No study of ours covers this pair yet.

Sources

  1. The Register, “Vibe coding service Replit deleted user's production database, faked data, told fibs galore”, 2025-07-21. https://www.theregister.com/2025/07/21/replit_saastr_vibe_coding_incident/. Accessed 2026-10-14. ↩ ↩2

  2. Anthropic, report on disrupting the GTG-1002 cyber espionage campaign, 2025-11-13. https://www.anthropic.com/news/disrupting-AI-espionage. Accessed 2026-10-14. ↩

  3. The Register, “Replit makes vibe-y promise to stop its AI agents making vibe coding disasters”, 2025-07-22. https://www.theregister.com/2025/07/22/replit_saastr_response/. Accessed 2026-10-14. ↩